For the whole of 2009, rentals of private residential properties dropped by -14.6% compared with the previous year.

The objective of this case study is to assist in the projection of the market condition for the next 3 to 6 months, by way of ascertaining whether private home prices will continue to climb due to increasing demand for use, or will they dip due to the availability of more than 10,000 new quality condo units at various locations from this year onwards.

The methodology used here is to compare the Q4 2009 median rent recorded in a particular condo/apt project with the Q4 2008 median rent there to determine the performance.

A total of 75 projects favoured by expatriate tenants in Singapore have been selected from the URA quarterly rental records for analysis.

Median rent is used as it is the amount of rent any prospective tenant is most likely to pay in a normal market situation.

Table [9] shows private residential projects where rents have fallen over a one-year period. [Table 9]

Table [9] – 68 out of the 75 selected projects saw median rent falling

Source of data: URA website

FINDINGS # 1 – PRIVATE HOME RENTS FALL BUT NO AS SERVERLY BEFORE

The above statistics show median rent in 68 (or 90.66%) of the 75 selected locations falling over the 12-month period. However, except for prime Districts such as D9 and D10 where private home rents fell more heavily, the rest of the private landlords have no major worries as rents in general are holding firmly.

Next, let’s look at projects where median rents have risen. [Table 10]

Table [10] – 7 out of the 75 selected projects saw median rent falling

Source of data: URA website

Except for The Sea View at Amber Road area where the median rent had risen 56 cents psf per month which represents a 15.8% jump in the median rent, other landlords are enjoying only small comfort with marginal increases in their rental income.

In short, not many landlords are jumping for joy.

FINDINGS # 2 – RENT FALL UNEVENLY WITH PRIME HOMES HEAVILY HIT

Please refer to the January Magazine issue or log on to www.update.sg for an earlier case study on rents based on ‘road name’.

The earlier statistics show median rent in 46 (or 59.8%) of the 77 selected locations falling over the 11-month period.

Rent falls were uneven in different locations. For example, in District 2, the November median rent for Icon fell 7.8% or 49 cents from $6.32 psf/pm in January 2009 to $5.83 psf/pm in November 2009.

In District 10, the fall is heavier with the monthly median rent of Draycott Park falling 35.8% or $2.43 psf/pm. The November median rent there is $4.36 psf per month, while it was $6.79 psf per month in January 2009.

In District 11 Trevose Crescent, the monthly median lost 32.9% or $1.50 psf per month in absolute term from $4.56 psf/pm in January 2009 to $3.06 psf/pm in November.

In other outlaying areas rents fall moderately within the 6% to 12% range, for example, in Rhu Cross the November median rent lost 5.9% or 16 cents psf/pm; while in Sembawang Road, the November median rent lost 11.8% or 25 cents.

Only 3 out of the 77 selected locations saw median rents remaining unchanged and they are D19 Serangoon Avenue 3 with popular projects like Chiltern Park, Springbloom and the Sunnydale; District 23 with project like The Warren; and District 27 with projects like Yishun Emerald and Sapphire.

It is not surprising to see median rent in Yishun stagnating because at $1.12 psf per month, there is no more room for any downward adjustments.

• LOOKING OVER THE HORIZON

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